Big Hill and the World

This whole Hill for Sec. of State has been playing out for a while. Initially, I didn't really "get" why she would subject herself to being under at least a pseudo-Obama thumb and why she wouldn't want her independence to generally speak her mind.

But, as this dragged on, I can see why she may take this post.

1. Being the junior Senator from New York behind the big mouth Schumer, doesn't give her much leverage to get the top committee posts she wants (the big money committees). Even if, and I hope he keeps kicking for years, Ted Kennedy were finally to die because of his brain tumor, or resign, she'd still be behind in seniority some big names.

2. There's currently a big hub-bub about former President Clinton's work and how he's been getting (no doubt sack loads) of cash and gifts during his travels. I think it's clear that if she were to run for President again she'll have to be more disclosing of what happened during the Clinton years and the post-years due to some Presidential records locks being undone via time passage. Those records are still locked and this was supposedly one of the big reasons she ran this year, those records were not available by law.

Moreover, it seemed very clear to me that her campaign struggled. I don't know why she trusted Mark Penn and he's clearly a colossal nimrod (if she'd listened to her own voice, much like if McCain had, she very well could have taken Obama). But, she really struggled, I think, in keeping Bill on the complete straight and narrow.

By going into this full vetting (though the Clinton's are haggling over what they will allow to be vetted), I think it will keep Clinton on a string and "under control" for as long as she is in the office. And if Bill goes off the reservation, that wouldn't necessarily be her fault...it'd be hung around Obama.

3. She would serve at least 4 years, and if Obama lost re-election, she could ride in on the white horse in 2016. If he won re-election, she could serve 5-6 and be out campaigning and raising vast sums of money for the 2016 race.

It appears at Biden's age, if Obama served 2 terms, may prevent him from running...so we may have another Cheney case on our hands in 8 years where both parties have new people.

4. By getting out of the Senate, she can escape that problem referred to in the post before this...where multiple votes begin to seem contradictory and you turn into John Kerry saying "I actually voted for the war, before I voted against it." But, she'd keep a public face during times of international crisis, which I think there will no doubt be.

5. Moreover, she can also stay out and above the political fray...good or bad. No one would remember the good, but they would the bad.

6. Deniability. Anything she says as an official envoy to the world can be denied in a later Presidential campaign by saying she was offering the position of the Obama Administration, not necessarily her own.

7. Israeli-Palestinian Peace. I think Obama may take a swing at this thing, a serious swing. And if she's handling the negotiations, she'll get a hefty chunk of the glory. If it fails again, whatever Obama tries, she wouldn't be blamed because of all the history in this conflict.

8. Hill is clearly a smart woman, but she can also use this opportunity to gather new ideas, new thoughts, new worldviews and perhaps re-invent herself and her message if she so chooses. Not to mention, perhaps, establishing new potential contacts to fund raise from.

9. She can not only re-invent her message, she can re-invent herself...yet again.

The only positive I can come up with her to staying in the Senate is her autonomy. It's possible that if the world blows up in mass hell-age she'd possibly get some blame, but again, I think it would all be targeted at an Obama administration.

So, at the beginning when the name was floated by whomever, I didn't buy her interest, but the more I have thought about it...I think she goes for it.

She could run for Governor of New York and resign her Senate seat if she won in 2010, but I don't think being the Governor of New York will give her the broad national headlines that being in the Senate has gotten her, nor even close to being the Secretary of State in a time of world upheaval. Not to mention, it's been rumored Rudy may run for Governor in 2010, and within New York she could lose to him, which would look bad. Even if she didn't lose, it'd be a nasty, expensive campaign that would NOT help her in any way for her Presidential aspirations. So, this option for her, in my view, is closed as well.